Crude Oil Price Update – Needs to Hold $63.48 to Sustain Longer-Term Rally

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are trading higher, but locked inside a wide intraday range. Helping to prop-up prices are the OPEC-led production cuts, the U.S. sanctions against the Iran and Venezuela, and just recently the turmoil in Libya that threatens to disrupt supply. Traders are a little concerned about slowing economic growth in China, which could lead to lower demand later in the year.

At 16:13 GMT, June WTI crude oil is trading $64.24, up $0.57 or +0.90%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $64.71 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through $61.92.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through $64.71 will reaffirm this uptrend also. A trade through the minor bottom at $63.39 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The major support is a long-term Fibonacci level at $63.48. This price is controlling the longer-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is $61.92 to $64.71. Its retracement zone at $63.32 to $62.99 is the next support zone.

The main support is $58.41 to $64.71. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $61.56 to $60.81 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the intraday price action, the direction of the June WTI crude oil market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $64.42.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $64.42 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into $64.71. Taking out this level could trigger another acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $64.42 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates some late session momentum then look for a potential break into the main Fib at $63.48, followed by the minor 50% level at $63.32 then the uptrending Gann angle at $63.17. This is followed by the short-term Fibonacci level at $62.99.