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James Hyerczyk
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WTI Crude Oil

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are inching lower shortly before the regular session opening on Monday after giving up earlier gains. The tight trading range suggests investors are looking for guidance as a strengthening U.S. economy and European economic reopenings offset the devastation from surging COVID-19 cases in India. Also capping gains are an outbreak of fresh coronavirus cases in parts of Asia and disappointing Chinese manufacturing data.

At 11:44 GMT, July WTI crude oil futures are trading $65.20, down $0.16 or -0.24%.

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Daily July WTI Crude Oil

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. A trade through $66.67 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through $62.82.

The minor trend is down. A trade through $66.63 will change the minor trend to up. A move through $63.12 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger.

The minor range is $66.67 to $63.12. The market is currently testing its retracement zone at $64.90 to $65.31 after an earlier attempt to breakout to the upside failed to gain traction.

The short-term range is $60.55 to $66.67. Its retracement zone at $63.61 to $62.89 is the primary downside target. Since the trend is up, buyers could come in on the first test of this area.

The main range is $57.18 to $66.67. If the main trend changes to down then look for the selling to possibly extend into its retracement zone at $61.93 to $60.81.

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Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the July WTI crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor Fibonacci level at $65.31.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $65.31 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this rally can gain traction then look for a potential surge into the minor top at $66.63, followed by the main top at $66.67.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $65.31 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the 50% level at $64.90. This price is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with $63.61 the next likely downside target.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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