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Paul Rejczak
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Gold

The gold futures contract lost 0.73% on Monday, as it extended its Friday’s decline. However, gold remained within an almost month-long consolidation along $1,850-1,900. On June 1 gold price was the highest since early January. In April the market has bounced from the support level marked by March 8 local low of $1,663.30. Since then it has been advancing. This morning gold is trading along yesterday’s closing price, as we can see on the daily chart (the chart includes today’s intraday data):

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Today gold is 0.1% lower. What about the other precious metals? Silver is 0.8% lower, platinum is 0.6% lower and palladium is 0.3% higher today. So precious metals are mixed this morning.

There will be Retail Sales release this morning at 8:30 a.m. We will also get the Producer Price Index number.

The markets will be waiting for tomorrow’s FOMC Statement announcement.

Where would the price of gold go following that news release? We’ve compiled the data since January of 2017, a 51-month-long period of time that contains of thirty five FOMC releases. The first chart shows price paths 5 days before and 10 days after the FOMC release. We can see that the biggest 10-day advance after the FOMC day was +10.5% after March 15, 2020 release and the biggest decline was -7.2% after March 3, 2020 release. But we’ve had an increased volatility following coronavirus fear then.

The latest FOMC Statement release came out on April 28. Gold price was 2.8% higher 10 days after the release.

The following chart shows average gold price path before and after the FOMC releases for the past 35 releases. The market was usually declining ahead of the FOMC day. Then it was going up for a week-long period. We can see that on average, gold price was 0.64% higher 10 days after the FOMC Statement announcement.

Below you will find our Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks economic news schedule for the next two trading days:

Tuesday, June 15

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Retail Sales m/m, Core Retail Sales m/m, PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Empire State Manufacturing Index
  • 9:15 a.m. U.S. – Industrial Production m/m, Capacity Utilization Rate
  • 10:00 a.m. U.S. – Business Inventories m/m, NAHB Housing Market Index

Wednesday, June 16

  • 8:30 a.m. U.S. – Building Permits, Housing Starts, Import Prices m/m
  • 8:30 a.m. Canada – CPI m/m
  • 2:00 p.m. U.S. – FOMC Statement, FOMC Economic Projections, Federal Funds Rate
  • 2:30 a.m. U.S. – FOMC Press Conference
  • 6:30 p.m. Canada – BOC Governor Macklem Speech
  • 9:30 p.m. Australia – Employment Change, Unemployment Rate

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Paul Rejczak
Stock Selection Strategist
Sunshine Profits: Analysis. Care. Profits.

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Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Paul Rejczak and Sunshine Profits’ associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Paul Rejczak and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Rejczak is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Paul Rejczak’s reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Paul Rejczak, Sunshine Profits’ employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

 

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