DAX, CAC and FTSE Forecast – EU Indices Mixed but Resillent

DAX Technical Analysis

The German DAX is oscillating near the psychologically important 25,000 level. The main gain that we have seen over the last couple of days has been due to the German business IFO numbers remaining flat, but it wasn’t terribly disappointing. It was just enough to keep the bulls somewhat afloat, but not enough to really get the growth spark going.

That being said, Deutsche Bank is providing a tailwind following restructuring updates as it’s up over 1.2%. The index is currently fighting to stay above its 50-day EMA. A failure to reclaim the 25,000 euros level decisively could invite a retest of the 24,250 level, but as things stand right now, I still believe the DAX is overall bullish.

CAC Technical Analysis

The Parisian CAC looks like it is going to be the underperformer in general in Europe as fresh tariff threats from the United States, specifically targeting trading partners with ties to China, which France obviously has, are weighing heavily on the luxury and automotive sectors. Think LVMH, Hermes, Renault.

Risk sentiment in Paris remains somewhat defensive as traders weigh the impact of potential 100% tariffs on key export routes. The CAC is currently threatening the 50-day EMA, and if we can continue to go a little bit higher, I think it opens up the possibility of filling the gap from last week where we could be looking at the 8,275-euro level and then eventually the 8,400-euro level.

FTSE MIB Technical Analysis

The FTSE MIB in Italy is doing well during the trading session, up about 0.33% as Italian financials such as UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo are performing quite well, gaining over 1% as the ECB signals a patient stance on rates.

Higher for longer rates continue to support net interest margins for the Milan-listed lenders. The MIB has tested the 50-day EMA in the last couple of days and bounced quite nicely as we remain in a nice up-trending channel. That being said, I think we’ve got a situation where we will eventually try to recapture the highs near the 46,000 level.