Dollar at Resistance, Metals Rolling Over – Is This the Turn?

The dollar is pushing into resistance after a controlled rebound, while gold and silver are already reacting – and not in favor of the bulls. This creates a classic setup: one market hesitating… the others already moving. And usually, that doesn’t last long.

USD (DX.F): Pushing Higher… But Running Into a Wall

The first thing that stands out on the daily chart is today’s small bullish gap (99.40-99.44), which kicked off the Asian session and is currently acting as very short-term support.

Bullish? At first glance – yes.

But when we zoom into H4… the tone shifts.

From this perspective, we see that the recent rebound pushed the dollar straight into a key resistance zone, defined by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline and a very short-term black declining trendline (which may also act as the upper boundary of a channel or falling wedge depending on what happens next).

When we take the above into account and combine with the fact that CCI and Stochastics already moved to their overbought areas + the price is still trading inside the orange consolidation, and suddenly… the upside movement doesn’t look that open anymore.

Even if bulls manage to push a bit higher, real control only comes with confirmation:

• daily close above the declining trendline
• breakout above consolidation (99.96)

In our opinion, only then the path toward the March 16 gap would be open. Until that happens? The setup remains fragile and the risk of a move back south is very real – especially if H4 indicators flip to sell.

Therefore, if bulls fail and close the session below the black declining trendline, bears may step in and push the dollar back toward 99 and lower in the coming day(s).

Silver (SI.F): Bears Take Control

Let’s start this section with the quote from yesterday:

“(…) The recovery move brought silver straight into a major resistance cluster: 

• the 50% Fibonacci retracement (7434)
• last week’s highs
• psychological 7500 level

At the same time, indicators are close to generating sell signals and price is slipped below the lower boundary of a rising wedge, which raises one question: is this strength… or exhaustion? 

For bears, the trigger is clear: breakdown below orange consolidation (7179) + sell signals. If confirmed, the downside opens the way toward:

• 6883 + today’s gap fill (…)”

Looking at the above charts, we see that silver bears followed the above scenario almost immediately, closing Wednesday under the lower line of the orange consolidation, which translated into a fresh bearish gap (7093-7264) at the start of the Asian session.

Such price action triggered continuation lower, and accelerated the realization of the scenario we discussed yesterday. Price moved cleanly below the first downside target and for those who acted on the breakdown, that move delivered (congratulations!).

Today’s Takeaway

Dollar: neutral -> resistances in play.

The rebound is testing key resistance but hasn’t confirmed a breakout. Therefore, if we see a daily close above the black trendline + consolidation breakout, we’ll get a bullish continuation. On the other hand, if we see failure here, the next move could take greenback toward 99.

Final Thought: let the market confirm the move at key levels before committing.

If you don’t want to miss the next move while it’s being built – not after it’s already happened – you can test Premium Lab Notes for 7 days for free here:

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Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand before committing fresh risk.

Anna