E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – February 14, 2017 Forecast

March Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. Traders are also squaring positions ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony at 1500 GMT.

Yellen should move the markets today. If she is hawkish, meaning she says a March rate hike is still on the table then look for downside pressure. If she is dovish and hints that June is a better time for a rate hike then the index is likely to rally.

Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 20396 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. However, today’s session also begins with the market in the window of time for a closing price reversal top. This is a potentially bearish chart pattern than often triggers a 2 to 3 day break and/or a 50% correction of the last rally.

Taking out 20396 and moving lower for the session will be the first sign that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels.

Forecast

Based on the current price at 20375, the direction of the Dow today will be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending angle at 20353.

A sustained move over 20353 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could create enough upside momentum to challenge yesterday’s high at 20396 and the chance at a new all-time high.

The daily chart is wide open to the downside with the next support angle coming in at 20033.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 20353 all session. This is the most important angle on the chart today.