E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – October 11, 2018 Forecast

E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are lower again early Thursday. Some of the pressure is follow-through selling following yesterday plunge. Some is related to weaker markets in Asia and Europe.

The early price action suggests traders are respecting a key retracement zone on the weekly chart. This zone is important because it appears on all three major charts – monthly, weekly and daily – which means it should attract volume. And volume will tell us if buyers have returned or if sellers are still in control.

We’re looking at the weekly chart because it takes out some of the volatility and emotion. The only pattern you should be watching for on the daily chart is the lower-low, higher-close or closing price reversal bottom.

At 0902 GMT, December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 25226, down 297 points or -1.16%.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, momentum is trending lower. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 24000. A trade through 26966 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is down. This move shifted momentum to the downside.

The main range is 23500 from the week-ending April 6 to 26966 from the week-ending October 5. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is 25233 to 24824. This zone is major support. It is also controlling the near-term direction of the Dow.

If 26966 to 25174 becomes the new minor range then its retracement zone at 26070 to 26281 will become the primary upside target.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average the rest of the week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 25233. This level provided support earlier today.

A sustained move over 25233 will indicate the return of buyers. If they can generate enough upside momentum then we could see a retracement into 26070 to 26281 over the near-term. Trader reaction to this zone will determine the direction of the next major move.

A sustained move under 25233 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a spike into 24824. The daily chart opens up to the downside under 24824 with the main bottom at 24000 the next major downside target.