James Hyerczyk
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E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are inching higher in a slow overnight session early Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve concluded its two-day meeting yesterday afternoon without revealing when or how it would move on tapering its massive bond purchases.

The price action suggests a tired, top-heavy market that may be overvalued and ripe for a near-term correction.

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With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not meeting again until September 21-22 stock market traders starving for guidance will have to rely on economic reports and Fed Speaker chatter for guidance. This will give them an excuse to take their summer vacations in August before returning after Labor Day. This could create mountains of volatility throughout the month.

At 05:24 GMT, September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 34853, up 19 or +0.05%.

In stock related news, Dow component McDonald’s reported on Wednesday that the chain’s Crispy Chicken Sandwich helped U.S. same-store sales outpace 2019 levels by double digits. U.S. same-store sales climbed 25.9% in the quarter and 14.9% on a two-year basis.

Earnings per share for the fast-food giant came in at $2.37 adjusted versus $2.11 expected and revenue was $5.89 billion versus $5.60 billion expected.

Additionally, Dow component Boeing reported its first quarterly profit in almost two years on Wednesday, boosted by a surge in deliveries of commercial jetliners as airlines began recovering from a pandemic slump and higher sales in the company’s other divisions.

The plane manufacturer snapped six consecutive quarters of losses, swinging to a profit of $567 million for the second quarter from a net loss of $2.96 billion in the quarter a year ago as air travel was plunging early in the pandemic.

Daily September E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 35072 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through 33623 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 34652 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The minor range is 35072 to 34652. The Dow is currently straddling its pivot at 34862 for a third session.

The short-term range is 33623 to 35072. If the minor trend changes to down then look for a break back to its retracement zone at 34348 to 34177.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the September E-mini Dow on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 34862.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 34862 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for buyers to make a run at the 35072 record high.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 34862 will signal the presence of sellers. This could create the momentum needed to challenge the minor bottom at 34652. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the first major target the short-term retracement zone at 34348 to 34177.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
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