E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Technical Analysis – Stronger Over 30793, Weaker Under 30355

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are edging slightly lower during the pre-market session on Friday following a steep break the previous session amid another sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields.

The overnight volume is relatively light and the trading range tight as investors eye the February jobs report, which is set to be released at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect to see that 210,000 payrolls were added in February, compared to just 49,000 in January, according to Dow Jones.

At 06:55 GMT, March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading 30856, down 22 or -0.07%.

Thursday’s sell-off was triggered by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on rising bond yields. He said the recent run-up caught his attention but he didn’t give any indication of how the central bank would rein it in. Some investors had expected the Fed chair to signal his willingness to adjust the Fed’s asset purchase program.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 30512 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 32033. This is highly unlikely but six days down from this top means we should start watching for a closing price reversal bottom.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 31637 will change the minor trend to up. This will shift momentum to the upside.

The short-term range is 29552 to 32033. The Dow is currently trading its 50% level at 30793.

The main range is 23918 to 32033. On Thursday, the Dow found support inside its retracement zone at 30676 to 30355. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the Dow.

The minor range is 32033 to 30512. Its 50% level at 31273 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers are likely to come in on the first test of this level.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The early price action suggests the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average on Friday will be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 30793.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 30793 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a potential rally into the minor pivot at 31273. Sellers could come in on the first test of this level. Overcoming this level with conviction will be bullish.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 30793 will signal the presence of sellers. This could lead to a labored sell-off with the main 50% level at 30676 the first target, followed by last year’s close at 30497 and the main Fibonacci level at 30355.

The Fibonacci level at 30355 is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the February 1 main bottom at 29552 the next potential downside target price.

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