E-mini Dow Strengthens Over 34065, Weakens Under 33960

March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are trading higher shortly before the cash market close on Wednesday despite a continued surge in oil prices amid the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

At 20:53 GMT, March E-mini Dow futures are at 33885, up 618 or +1.86%.

All 30 components of the Dow are moving higher, led by shares of Caterpillar, JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs, which are up 5.64%, 2.44% and 2.76%, respectively.

The moves came as oil prices trekked upward, building on a massive move in the previous session.

Stocks also jumped as Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress for his semiannual monetary policy update. The central bank chief said that rate hikes are likely to begin this month despite the “highly uncertain” impact of the war in Ukraine, and that the Fed would make progress on but not finalize a plan to reduce its balance sheet.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since February 24.

A trade through 35060 will change the main trend to up. A move through 32167 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 34065 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The E-mini Dow is currently trading on the strong side of a long-term retracement zone at 33461 to 32665. Inside this zone is minor pivot support at 33116.

The minor range is 35752 to 32167. Its pivot at 33960 is acting like support.

The short-term range is 36832 to 32167. Its retracement zone at 34500 to 35050 is the primary upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this area.

Short-Term Outlook

The E-mini Dow is hovering just below the key resistance area at 33960 – 34065. Trader reaction to this area should determine the direction of the market on Thursday.

Look for the bearish tone to continue on a sustained move under 33960. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into 33461, followed by 33116.

Look for a bullish tone to develop on a sustained move over 34065. This move could create the upside momentum needed to challenge 34500 to 35050.