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James Hyerczyk
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading slightly lower early Thursday on relatively low volume. Investors remain cautious as they seek guidance over Brexit negotiations. The lack of clarity over the partial trade deal between the United States and China is also making investors a little more tentative at current price levels due to valuation issues. Also keeping a lid on prices is a weak U.S. retail sales report for September, which offset strong earnings results on Wednesday.

At 05:08 GMT, December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index futures are trading 7947.00, down 1.50 or -0.02%.

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Daily December E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 7971.75 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. Taking out the main top at 7973.75 will reaffirm the uptrend. The main trend changes to down on a move through 7583.25. This is highly unlikely, however, the steep six-day rally has put the market in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The short-term range is 7583.25 to 7971.75. Its retracement zone at 7777.50 to 7731.75 is the closest downside target and potential support zone.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Two days of inside movement suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. The early price action suggests the direction of the index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to this week’s high at 7971.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 7971.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into a pair of main tops at 7973.75 and 8002.75. The major upside target is the July 24 top at 8071.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 7971.75 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into Tuesday’s low at 7859.75. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next potential target the short-term retracement zone at 7777.50 to 7731.75.

Side Notes

The Brexit negotiations appear to be holding the index hostage. The longer the index remains bottled up, the greater the breakout.

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