E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – August 22, 2018 Forecast

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading lower shortly before the cash market opening. The market is clawing back an earlier loss that was fueled by a knee-jerk reaction to a U.S. political event. Later today, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest minutes from its July 31 to August 1 FOMC monetary policy meeting.

At 1103 GMT, the September E-mini S&P 500 Index is trading 2860.75, down 1.00 or -0.03%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2874.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a move through 2803.00.

The minor trend is also up. However, the early session weakness made 2874.00 a new minor top. Taking out this top will make 2846.25 a new minor bottom.

The minor range is 2874.00 to 2846.25. Its 50% level or pivot at 2860.25 is currently being tested.

The short-term range is 2803.00 to 2874.00. Its retracement zone at 2838.50 to 2830.00 is the primary downside target. Since the trend is up, buyers could come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the current price at 2860.75, the direction of the September E-mini S&P 500 Index today is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 2860.25.

A sustained move over 2860.25 will indicate the return of buyers. If this is able to generate enough upside momentum then we could see a retest of yesterday’s high at 2874.00. The primary upside target is the January 29 main top at 2889.00.

A sustained move under 2860.25 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for a potential break into the intraday low at 2846.25, followed closely by a steep uptrending Gann angle at 2843.00.

Look for a technical bounce on the first test of 2843.00. If it fails then look for a further break into the short-term retracement zone at 2838.50 to 2830.00.