E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Closing Price Reversal Top Could Signal Shift in Momentum

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled lower last week after hitting a record high early in the week. Most of the selling pressure came minutes before Friday’s close. Buying was limited last week due to extremely low volume. The late selling may have been related to end-of-the-year profit-taking.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart. However, movement may have shifted to the downside with the formation of a weekly closing price reversal top.

A trade through 2698.25 will negate the closing price reversal top. It will also signal a resumption of the uptrend.

A move through 2667.25 will confirm the closing price reversal top. This could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 week correction and an acceleration to the downside.

The main range is 2415.50 to 2698.25. Its retracement zone at 2556.75 to 2523.50 is the primary downside target.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s close at 2676.00, the direction of the index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to last week’s low at 2667.75.

A sustained move over 2667.75 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum, we could see a test of the closing price reversal top at 2698.25.

Taking out 2698.25 could trigger a move into a steep long-term uptrending Gann angle at 2719.50. Overtaking this level and sustaining the move will put the index in an extremely bullish position.

A sustained move under 2667.75 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next major target coming in at 2567.50. This is followed by the retracement zone at 2556.75 to 2523.50.