E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Break Under 3340.75 First Sign of Weakness

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open higher based on the pre-market trade. The early session rally was triggered after China announced it will halve tariffs on U.S. imports totaling about $175 billion.

Stocks are also being helped by massive amounts of liquidity from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and optimism that a cure will be found for the coronavirus.

At 14:12 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3345.50, up 10.50 or +0.31%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was reaffirmed earlier today when buyers took out yesterday’s high. The main trend will change to down when sellers take out the last main bottom at 3212.75.

A change in trend to down is highly unlikely, but due to the prolonged move down in terms of price and time, the index is in the window of time for a closing price reversal top. This puts the emphasis on holding above yesterday’s close at 3335.00.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3345.50, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Wednesday’s close at 3335.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3335.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Holding above the steep uptrending Gann angle at 3340.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under the steep uptrending Gann angle at 3340.75 will be the first sign that the buying is weakening, or that the selling is getting stronger.

Turning lower for the session on a move through 3335.00 will put the index in a position to form a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

Side Notes

A close under 3335.00 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed, this could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction. Often the move is 50% to 61.8% of the last upswing.