E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Breaking 3181.00 Could Trigger Break into 3096.25

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed lower last week as investors continued to react to the possibility of a global economic slowdown due to the rapidly spreading coronavirus in China. A strong earnings season may have been the factor propping up the market and preventing an even steeper price slide.

Last Friday, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 3224.00, down 69.50 or -2.16%.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum turned to the downside after sellers confirmed the previous week’s closing price reversal top.

A trade through 3337.50 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. The main trend will change to down on a trade through 3181.00.

The short-term range is 3181.00 to 3337.50. Its 50% level or pivot comes in at 3259.25. The close under this level is helping to generate the downside momentum.

The first intermediate range is 2855.00 to 3337.50. Its 50% level at 3096.25 is the first downside target.

The second intermediate range is 2787.00 to 3337.50. Its 50% level at 3062.25 is the second downside target.

The third intermediate range is 2741.75 to 3337.50. Its retracement zone at 3039.50 to 2969.25 is the third downside target.

The main range is 2356.00 to 3337.50. Its retracement zone at 2846.75 to 2731.00 is the major support area. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

Weekly Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action and the close at 3224.00, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 3259.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3259.25 will indicate the presence of sellers. This could trigger a move into the main bottom at 3181.00. Taking out this bottom will change the main trend to down on the weekly chart. This could trigger an acceleration into a series of retracement levels at 3096.25, 3062.25 and 3039.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3259.25 will signal the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for the buying to possibly extend into the main top at 3337.50. Taking out this top will signal a resumption of the uptrend.