E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Close Under 3288.00 Forms Reversal Top

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher at the mid-session, but this is down from an earlier record high. The U.S. and China signed a highly anticipated Phase One trade agreement, and corporate earnings reports continued to shine, but buyers looked a little tentative adding to positions at current price levels. This suggests investors may be a little worried about valuations.

At 18:36 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 3290.50, up 2.50 or +0.08%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The uptrend was confirmed earlier when buyers took out yesterday’s high. Taking out the intraday high at 3299.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a move through 3181.00. This is not likely today, but the market is in a position to post a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This won’t change the trend, but if confirmed, it could lead to a 2 to 3 day sell-off.

The short-term range is 3181.00 to 3299.00. Its 50% level at 3240.00 is a potential downside target. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on a test of this level.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3290.50, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Wednesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to yesterday’s close at 3288.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3288.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out the intraday high at 3299.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 3303.00 and 3310.25.

Overtaking 3310.25 will put the index in an extremely bullish position.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3288.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a break into the uptrending Gann angle at 3261.00. Look for buyers on the first test.

If 3261.00 fails as support then look for the selling to possibly extend into the 50% level at 3240.00.