E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – February 21, 2019 Forecast

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open lower based on the pre-market trade. The price action suggests investors weren’t too thrilled with the Fed minutes and the news that Washington and Beijing have begun drawing up memorandums of understanding over trade.

Traders are also reacting to several bearish economic reports including Durable Goods, Core Durable Goods and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. However, a better-than-expected report on Weekly Unemployment Claims may have dampened the selling pressure. Later today, investors will get a chance to respond to the latest Flash Manufacturing PMI and Flash Services PMI reports.

At 13:48 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2782.25, down 4.75 or -0.16%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. Earlier today, the uptrend was reaffirmed when buyers took out the previous day’s high. A trade through 2729.00 will change the main trend to down.

Today’s session began with the market in the window of time for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. Today’s early price action has put the index in a position to form this chart pattern. A lower close today could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day counter-trend correction.

The short-term range is 2729.00 to 2798.00. Its retracement zone at 2763.50 to 2755.25 is the primary downside target. Since the main trend is up, look for buyers to come in on a test of this zone.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the steep uptrending Gann angle at 2777.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2777.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move is able to generate enough upside momentum, we could see a quick rally into a minor 50% level at 2788.25. Overcoming this level could lead to a test of today’s intraday high at 2798.00.

Taking out 2798.00 could trigger a surge into another steep uptrending Gann angle at 2808.75. Crossing to the strong side of the Gann angle will put the index in a bullish position with the December 3 main top at 2819.00 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2777.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger an acceleration to the downside with the next target the short-term retracement zone at 2763.50 to 2755.25. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this zone.

Additional support angles come in at 2753.00 and 2744.75.