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James Hyerczyk
E-mini S&P 500 Index

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading sharply lower shortly after the mid-session on Monday as investors reacted negatively to disappointing manufacturing data. Concerns over a trade deal also weighed on prices although the benchmark index did touch a record high earlier in the session. The index is currently in a position to post its biggest decline in two months.

At 19:00 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are at 3118.25, down 25.50 or -0.81%.

Daily December E-mini S&P 500 Index

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. The main trend was reaffirmed earlier today, however, the intraday reversal to the downside indicates momentum may be getting ready to shift to the downside.

A trade through 3158.00 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 3020.50 will change the main trend to down. This is unlikely today, but the market is in a positon to post a closing price reversal top, which could trigger the start of a 2 to 3 day correction.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 3090.75 will change the minor trend to down. This will shift momentum to the downside.

The first minor range is 3090.75 to 3158.00. Its 50% level at 3124.50 is new resistance.

The second minor range is 3075.75 to 3158.00. Its 50% level at 3117.00 is currently being straddled.

The third minor range is 3063.00 to 3158.00. Its 50% level at 3110.50 stopped the selling earlier today at 3110.25.

The main range is 3020.25 to 3158.00. If the minor retracement levels fail then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main retracement zone at 3089.00 to 3072.75.


Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3118.25, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close is likely to be determined by the 50% level at 3117.00.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3117.00 will indicate the presence of sellers. The first downside target is the 50% level at 3110.50. This is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the first target a potential support cluster at 3090.75 to 3089.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3117.00 will signal the presence of buyers. The first upside target is the 50% level at 3124.50. Overtaking this level could lead to a further rally into today’s intraday pivot at 3134.25.

Side Notes

A close under 3143.75 will form a closing price reversal top. If confirmed on Tuesday, look for the start of a 2 to 3 day correction with 3089.00 the minimum downside target.

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