E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – January 25, 2019 Forecast

The bench mark S&P 500 Index is being supported shortly before the cash market opening by talk of a possible end of the government shutdown which is now in its 34^th day. Investors are reacting to reports that a bipartisan group of Senators are working on a proposal to get about one-quarter of the government workforce back to work, at least in the interim. Investors are also reacting positively to earnings reports.

At 1426 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 2660.25, up 26.50 or +1.01%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 2677.75 will reaffirm the uptrend with the next main top target coming in at 2690.50. Taking out this top will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2438.50. However, if 2677.75 is taken out, the main bottom moves up to 2612.50.

The current chart pattern indicates the main trend is safe, but investors have to watch for a potentially bearish closing price reversal top.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2612.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside. Additional minor bottoms comes in 2596.50, 2567.25 and 2560.50.

The market is currently trading inside a major retracement zone at 2636.00 to 2711.50. This zone is controlling the near-term direction of the market.

The short-term range is 2438.50 to 2677.75. If 2612.50 fails as support then its retracement zone at 2558.00 to 2529.75 becomes the next likely downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 2658.25, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 2636.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2636.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this creates enough upside momentum then look for buyers to take a run at the main top at 2677.75. Taking out this level will indicate the buying is getting stronger with targets coming in at 2690.50 and 2711.50.

Bearish Scenario

A failure to hold 2636.00 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into 2612.50. Taking it out will shift momentum to the downside with potential targets coming in at 2596.50, 2567.25 and 2560.50.