E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Major Weekly Support at 2876.75 to 2753.75

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures finished sharply lower for the week, but the longer-term chart suggests buyers came in late in the week on the test of a key retracement zone. The selling was driven by concerns over the economic impact of the coronavirus on the global economy. The late buying on Friday was fueled by dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who suggested the Fed may cut rates at its March meeting in two weeks.

Last week, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures settled at 2951.00, down 388.25 or -13.16%. The low for the week was 2853.25.

 

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart. The trend turned down last week when sellers took out the 3181.00 swing bottom. It was reaffirmed when the minor bottom at 3071.00 and the main bottom at 2855.00 were violated. The main trend will change to up on a trade through 3397.50.

The main range is 2356.00 to 3397.50. Its retracement zone at 2876.75 to 2753.75 is potential support. It stopped the selling at 2853.25 last week. It is controlling the near-term direction of the index.

On the upside, potential resistance is a Fibonacci level at 2992.25, and a pair of 50% levels at 3069.75 and 3092.25.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action and the close at 2951.00, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main 50% level at 2876.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2876.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 2992.25. Overtaking this level could trigger a surge into 3069.75 to 3092.25.

A move over 3092.25 could trigger a surge into a downtrending Gann angle at 3141.50. This is followed by another downtrending Gann angle at 3269.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2876.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a support cluster formed by last week’s low at 2853.25 and an uptrending Gann angle at 2852.00.

If 2852.00 fails then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main bottom at 2787.00, the major Fibonacci level at 2753.75 and the next main bottom at 2741.75.

Taking out 2741.75 could trigger an acceleration into a pair of uptrending Gann angles at 2604.00 and 2480.00. The latter is the last potential support angle before the 2356.00 main bottom.