E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Next Major Downside Target 3126.25-3062.25

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are expected to open sharply lower on Monday based on the pre-market trade. The trigger for the sell-off is a sharp increase in the number of coronavirus cases outside China and the fear that officials are losing control over the spread of the virus.

At 10:45 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3250.75, down 89.00 or -2.64%.

Early Monday, the index gapped lower in response to a jump in coronavirus cases in South Korea and Italy. South Korea raised its coronavirus alert to the “highest level” as the number of cases rose to 750 – the most outside mainland China.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend turned down earlier today after sellers took out the previous main bottom at 3303.50. A trade through 3397.50 will change the main trend to up. The next two potential downside targets are main bottoms at 3212.75 and 3181.00.

The short-term range is 3212.75 to 3397.50. Its retracement zone at 3283.25 to 3305.25 is the first resistance area.

The main range is 2855.00 to 3397.50. Its retracement zone at 3126.25 to 3062.25 is the major downside target.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price and the current price at 3250.75, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 3243.00. The low of the session so far is 3242.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 3243.00 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could trigger a further decline into the main bottoms at 3212.75 and 3181.00.

If 3181.00 is taken out then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main retracement zone at 3126.25 to 3062.25.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 3243.00 will signal the return of buyers. This could trigger a counter-trend rally into a short-term Fibonacci level at 3283.50, followed by a 50% level at 3305.25 and a downtrending Gann angle at 3333.50. Overtaking this angle will indicate the buying is getting stronger with the next target angle coming in at 3365.50.