E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – November 14, 2018 Forecast

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures opened higher on Wednesday after reversing early session weakness. The price action continues to be dictated by a series of retracement levels, created a choppy trading environment. These moves reflect the fundamentals which are also created two-sided trading opportunities.

Today’s trading session began with the index trading inside its major retracement zone identified as the 50% level at 2748.50 and the 61.8% level at 2701.75. This zone is controlling the longer-term direction of the index.

The short-term range is 2603.00 to 2818.00. Its retracement zone at 2710.50 to 2685.00 is the primary downside target. Inside the retracement zone is the min Fib level at 2701.75.

The main range is 2947.00 to 2603.00. Its retracement zone at 2775.00 to 2815.50 is the primary upside target. A breakout over this zone should launch a strong rally.

Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 2710.50.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2710.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. If the upside momentum is strong enough then look for a rally into the major 50% level at 2748.50. This is the key level.

Overtaking and sustaining a move over 2748.50 will signal that the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a further surge into the next 50% level at 2775.00.

The 50% level at 2775.00 is also the trigger point for an acceleration into a series of retracement levels at 2815.75, followed by 2818.00 and 2824.25.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2710.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This should lead to a quick test of the major Fib level at 2701.75, followed by the minor bottom at 2699.50 and the short-term Fib at 2685.00.

The short-term Fib is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside since the next targets don’t come in until 2603.00 and 2602.75.