E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Short-Term Support 2602.00, Short-Term Resistance 2708.00

June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures closed higher last week, posting an inside move in the process. This chart pattern tends to indicate investor indecision and impending volatility. The daily chart indicates that investors have to learn to live with elevated levels of volatility.

Weekly Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the weekly chart swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower with the formation of the secondary lower top at 2807.25.

A trade through 2806.25 will shift momentum to the upside. A move through 2883.25 will negate a closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The main trend will change to down on a trade through 2532.50.

The main range is the contract range of 2321.00 to 2883.25. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at 2602.00 to 2535.75 is the primary downside target. The lower or Fibonacci level of this range at 2535.75 stopped the selling at 2532.50 the week-ending February 9.

The upper or 50% level at 2602.00 has provided support the last two weeks.

The short-term range is 2883.25 to 2532.50. Its retracement zone at 2708.00 to 2749.25 is the primary upside target. The market has been straddling this zone for several weeks. Sellers are trying to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top. This could eventually lead to a change in trend to down.

Weekly Technical Forecast

Based on last week’s price action, the direction of the index this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at 2596.50. This angle stopped the selling the last two weeks.

A sustained move over 2596.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overcoming and sustaining the move over the 50% level at 2602.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger.

The daily chart is open to the upside so if enough momentum is generated, we could see a rally into a 50% level at 2708.00, a pair of Gann angles at 2729.00 and 2739.25 and a Fibonacci level at 2749.25.

The trigger point for an acceleration to the upside is 2749.25.

A sustained move under 2596.50 will signal the presence of sellers. This could drive the market lower with the first target angle coming in at 2564.50, followed by the main Fibonacci level at 2535.75.

The trend will change to down on a move through 2532.50, but look for an acceleration to the downside if sellers take out 2525.00. This is the trigger point for an acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in at 2423.00.