E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – Strengthens Over 3004.75, Weakens Under 2992.25

December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading nearly flat on Tuesday as investors begin to position themselves ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate and monetary policy decisions on Wednesday. Traders have priced in a 25-basis point rate cut for weeks. However, according to the CME, there is a 34 percent chance the Fed does nothing. This is up from zero a month ago.

At 11:48 GMT, December E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 3001.25, down 0.25 or -0.01%.

Conditions have also calmed in the crude oil market as traders are now focusing on how long it will take before the damaged Saudi facility is running at full capacity. The price action also suggests investors are too concerned about retaliation from the United States.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top at 3025.75 on September 13 and its subsequent confirmation on Monday.

A trade through 3025.75 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 2958.75 will change the main trend to down.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through 2983.50 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The minor range is 3025.75 to 2983.50. Its 50% level or pivot at 3004.75 is acting like resistance.

The short-term range is 2958.75 to 3025.75. Its 50% level or pivot at 2992.25 is providing support early Tuesday.

The main range is 2811.00 to 3025.75. If the main trend changes to down then look for a break into its retracement zone at 2918.25 to 2893.00.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at 3001.25, the direction of the December E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term uptrending Gann angle at 2998.75.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 2998.75 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking the minor pivot at 3004.75 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This would put the index in a position to challenge the main top at 3025.75.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 2998.75 will signal the presence of sellers. The first target is the pivot at 2992.25. If this fails then look for the selling to extend into the minor bottom at 2983.50 and the short-term uptrending Gann angle at 2978.75. The latter is the last potential support before the 2958.75 main bottom.