E-mini S&P Buyers Eyeing 4455.00 – 4538.50 Retracement Zone

March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading higher late in the day on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank would likely raise interest rates less than some investors had feared.

Powell’s comments, in testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, helped calm investors after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent markets into a tailspin.

At 20:14 GMT, March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4384.25, up 80.50 or +1.87%. The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $437.96, up $7.98 or +1.86%.

All 11 S&P 500 sector indexes advanced, with financials rebounding 2.8% after falling sharply so far this week. The banks’ index climbed 3.3% after hitting its lowest level since September 2021 in the previous session.

Energy shares resumed their march higher, with the S&P 500 energy index up 2.9% as Brent crude jumped to near eight-year highs after Western sanctions disrupted transport of commodities exported by Russia.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been trending higher since February 24.

A trade through 4484.50 will change the main trend to up. A move through 4101.75 will reaffirm the downtrend.

On the downside, the major support is a retracement zone at 4263.25 to 4134.75.

On the upside, the primary target and potential resistance area is 4455.00 to 4538.50.

Short-Term Outlook

The direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Wednesday will be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 4344.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4344.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Taking out Tuesday’s high at 4399.00 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a late session surge into the short-term retracement zone at 4455.00 to 4538.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4343.75 will signal the presence of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the main 50% level at 4263.25.

Counter-trend buyers could come in on the first test of 4263.25, but if it fails, we could see an acceleration into the main Fibonacci level at 4134.75.