E-mini S&P Could Pick Up Late Session Strength Over 4447.25

U.S. benchmark stocks are trading higher at the mid-session, underpinned by data showing that so-called core inflation rose slightly less than expected in March. The 10-year Treasury yield retreated from a three-year high following the report as traders were betting the core reading could mean inflation is showing signs of peaking.

At 15:16 GMT, June E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading 4439.00, up 30.00 or +0.68%.  The S&P 500 Trust ETF (SPY) is at $444.28, up $4.36 or +0.99%.

Core Inflation Falls Short of Estimate

Consumer prices for March increased 1.2% month-to-month and 8.5% annually, the Labor Department said on Tuesday. But traders were focusing on the core reading, which excludes food and energy prices. Core CPI in March increased 0.3%, below the consensus economist estimate from Dow Jones of 0.5%. Core prices on an annual basis were up 6.5%.

Interest-Rate Sensitive Tech Stocks Recover

Microsoft is up about 1.6%. Chip stocks Nvidia spiked 3.7%, Qualcomm popped 2.2%, Broadcom rallied 2.4% and Tesla jumped 3.9%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, the intraday price action suggests momentum may be shifting to the upside.

A trade through the intraday low of 4382.25 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. A move through 4588.75 will change the main trend to up.

On the upside, the resistance is the main retracement zone at 4447.25 to 4530.50. Inside this zone is a minor pivot at 4506.75.

On the downside, the support is the short-term retracement zone at 4362.50 to 4299.25.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the June E-mini S&P 500 Index into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 4409.00.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 4409.00 will indicate the presence of buyers. Overtaking the main 50% level at 4447.25 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a late session surge into the resistance cluster at 4506.75 to 4530.50.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 4409.00 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for a possible retest of the intraday low at 4382.25, followed by the short-term retracement zone at 4362.50 to 4299.25.