ETH Bulls Need a Return to $1,210 or Face a Fall to Sub-$1,180

Key Insights:

• On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) and ethereum (ETH) joined the broader crypto market in negative territory.
• US economic indicators beat forecasts to send riskier assets deep into the red before a late rebound.
• Crypto market conditions remained bearish this morning.

Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 0.08% on Friday. Partially reversing a 0.93% gain from Thursday, ETH ended the day at $1,199. The bearish session left ETH at sub-$1,200 for the second time in eleven sessions.

A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early morning high of $1,202. Coming up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,209, ETH slid to a mid-afternoon low of $1,180. ETH fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,189 before briefly returning to $1,201. However, a bearish end to the session left ETH at sub-$1,200 levels.

On Friday, bitcoin (BTC) fell by 0.24%. Partially reversing a 0.60% gain from Thursday, BTC ended the day at $16,618. Notably, BTC failed to revisit $17,000 for the tenth consecutive session.

After a bearish morning, BTC slid to an early afternoon of $16,358. BTC fell through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,550 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,443. However, finding NASDAQ support, BTC rallied to a late high of $16,667 before easing back.

Despite the late rally, BTC came up short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,720.

US Economic Indicators and the NASDAQ Guided the Crypto Market

After a bearish morning session, US economic indicators and the NASDAQ Index sent BTC and ETH to session lows.

In December, the Chicago PMI jumped from 37.2 to 44.9, raising the threat of the Fed pursuing its aggressive interest rate trajectory to bring inflation to target. The crypto market tracked the NASDAQ Index through the afternoon session, falling to a session low before reversing the losses.

On Friday, the NASDAQ Index ended the session down 0.11%. While the Friday loss was modest, the NASDAQ Index had its worst year since 2008, sliding by 33.5%.

Today, there are no US economic indicators to provide direction. The lack of stats will leave the crypto news wires to influence. However, with the New Year holidays, the crypto news wires will likely see less traffic, leaving investors to consider what lies ahead for the Fed and the global economy.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Action

At the time of writing, ETH was down 0.38% to $1,195. A mixed start to the day saw ETH rise to an early high of $1,200 before falling to a low of $1,194.

Technical Indicators

ETH needs to avoid a fall through the $1,194 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,207. A move through the Friday high of $1,202 would signal a bullish afternoon session. However, the crypto news wires need to deliver support for a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, the bulls would likely take a run at the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,216. The Third Major Resistance level (R3) sits at $1,238.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,185 into play. However, barring an event-driven sell-off, ETH should avoid sub-$1,170. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,172 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1,150.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. Ethereum sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $1,205. The 50-day EMA eased back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA pulling back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($1,205) and R1 ($1,207) would bring the 100-day EMA ($1,215) and R2 ($1,216) into play. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($1,205) would leave ETH under pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Action

At the time of writing, BTC was down 0.25% to $16,577. A mixed start to the day saw BTC rise to an early high of $16,624 before falling to a low of $16,576.

Technical Indicators

BTC needs to avoid the $16,548 pivot to target the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $16,737. A move through the Friday high of $16,667 would signal a bullish session. However, the crypto news wires need to be crypto-friendly to support a breakout session.

In the event of an extended rally, BTC would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $16,857 and resistance at $17,000. The Third Major Resistance Level (R3) sits at $17,166.

A fall through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level (S1) at $16,428 into play. Barring a crypto risk-off-fueled sell-off, BTC should avoid sub-$16,000. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $16,239 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $15,930.

An adverse crypto market event would bring sub-$16,000 into play.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below), it was a bearish signal. BTC sat below the 50-day EMA, currently at $16,719. The 50-day EMA fell back from the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA easing back from the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish signals.

A move through the 50-day EMA ($16,719) and R1 ($16,737) would support a run at the 100-day EMA ($16,817) and R2 ($16,857). A breakout from the 50-day EMA would send a bullish signal. However, failure to move through the 50-day EMA ($16,719) would bring the Major Support Levels into view.