EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Euro Falls in a Range Below 1.10

EUR/USD Attempting to End Four Day Winning Streak

EUR/USD rose in a recovery last week but was met with a hurdle of resistance late in the week near the 1.1000 handle. The pair is under a bit of pressure in early trading on Monday and is on pace to end a four consecutive day winning streak.

The pair saw a bit of selling on Friday following the US jobs report when the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 3.5%. However, buyers stepped in near 1.0966 support to keep the pair within a range.

Earlier today, German factory orders were reported to decline 0.6% in August which was below the analyst estimate for a decline of 0.4%. Economic data for the Euro area as of late has been mostly weaker and its starting to become a bit of a trend.

The highlight this week, in terms of economic data, will tend to be meeting minutes from the last central bank meetings in the US and Europe. As well, the latest US consumer price index figures will be released late in the week.

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD trades near an important resistance and this could be area where the pair might try and reverse lower, in line with the broader downtrend.

Resistance comes from the psychological 1.1000 level which is currently carrying confluence with the 20-day moving average.

Further, there is a declining trend channel in play that has been containing price action since late June. The upper bound of the channel offers additional resistance although the pair has not tested it as of yet.

It looks like EUR/USD is trying to turn, however, considering the light data docket a catalyst might be lacking. A move towards support at 1.0930 might offer a stronger signal that a near-term top is in place.

On the other hand, a sustained break above channel resistance would suggest that a broader recovery is taking place. At this stage, I tend to favor the former scenario.

Bottom Line

• EUR/USD is under a bit of pressure although has held within a range that’s played out over the past three session so far.
• Important economic releases this week include the last Fed and ECB meeting minutes as well as US CPI data.