EUR/USD Daily Forecast – Markets are Braced for Volatility

EUR/USD has been confined to a range for most of the month with sellers stepping in near the 200-week moving average while buyers have defended the 1.1200 area.

The next few days could be more volatile than usual as the end of the month and end of the quarter often accompany an increase in market activity with investors readjusting positions.

In terms of economic releases, the US jobs report later in the week will be widely watched. Analysts expect the unemployment rate to improve to 12.5%. The jobs market was much stronger than expected at the last reading with the unemployment rate printing at 13.3% in May while the estimate was for an increase to 19.4%.

Investors will also be focused on incoming Coronavirus figures with the latest data showing the global death tally exceeding half a million people.

The US has been hit particularly hard with a rise of more than 40,000 cases per day over the last three days. There are only two US states that are showing a decline in new cases.

The latest data shows the number of confirmed cases in the United States just shy of 2.6 million while 128 thousand people have died as a result of the virus.

Technical Analysis

With volatility expected to increase, the question will be whether EUR/USD breaks out of its range. And if so, if that range break will be sustained.

For the session ahead, Notable resistance is seen near 1.1340. This same level has acted as recent three times in June so far.

To the downside, support for the pair is seen at 1.1212 for today. This level was important support in the first half of the month and is seen as a line in the sand for a near-term directional bias.

There may be brief bursts of volatility in the session ahead and traders should be cautious until Wednesday, especially if trading the shorter time frames.

Bottom Line

• The range in EUR/USD remains intact with major resistance seen at 1.1400 while buyers have lifted the pair higher ahead of strong support at 1.1132.
• Month and quarter-end flows are likely to cause an increase in volatility in the first half of the week.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.