EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Attempting to Pick Its Feet Up

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro had initially fallen during the trading session on Tuesday but then turned around to show signs of life. It’s interesting that we are behaving the way we are due to the fact that there is a lot of noise in this area from back in fall of 2023.

A little bit of market memory probably comes back into the picture with the 1.07 level above as a major resistance barrier and an area that previously had been support. All things being equal, this is a market that could test that area and we’ll see what happens. But the question at this point in time is whether or not that actually causes a reaction.

The Euro is also going to have to come to grips with the idea that the European Central Bank has recently stated that they are likely to cut rates. In fact, it’s very likely that the Euro will see rate cuts before the US dollar at this point. That doesn’t mean that the Federal Reserve won’t cut. It just means that the Euro is probably going to go first.

In general, this is a market that has recently broken through major support and that is something that you should keep in the back of your mind. The 50-day EMA is getting ready to cross below the 200-day EMA, forming the so-called death cross, which longer-term traders may pay close attention to but ultimately, this is a situation where I think the downside is probably somewhat limited, probably with the 1.05 level being a major barrier to try to break through. But I also believe at this point you have to look at it through the prism of possibly fading rallies that show signs of exhaustion.

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