EUR/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Downside Momentum Should Lead to Test of 1.1168 – 1.1167

The Euro is under pressure early Thursday on renewed safe-haven U.S. Dollar demand due to fears the increasing global coronavirus cases could derail the economic recovery. The sharp uptick in COVID-19 cases in the United States is pressuring higher-risk assets on concerns that a second wave of infections could lead to new lockdown measures and other restrictions in an effort to contain the virus.

At 07:28 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1235, down 0.0013 or -0.12%.

In other news, the German consumer climate was expected to continue improving in July, although the latest Covid-19 lockdowns might act as a drag.

Consultancy Gfk’s consumer confidence gauge jumped from a reading of -18.6 for June to -9.6 in July, easily surpassing the -12.0 print expected by economists.

Later today, investors will get the opportunity to react to the latest European Central Bank Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. In the U.S., all eyes will be on reports covering Durable Goods, Final GDP, Weekly Unemployment Claims, Goods Trade Balance and Preliminary Wholesale Inventories. The Fed is also scheduled to release its Bank Stress Text Results at 20:30 GMT.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through 1.1168 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend changes to up on a move through 1.1422.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.1349 will change the minor trend to up. This will also shift momentum to the upside.

The minor range is 1.1168 to 1.1349. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1259 will control the direction today.

The short-term range is 1.1422 to 1.1168. Its 50% level at 1.1295 is resistance.

The main range is 1.1167 to 1.1066. This zone is the primary downside target and major support area. This zone is also controlling the longer-term direction of the Forex pair.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session on Thursday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 1.1259.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1259 will indicate the presence of sellers. If this move generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to possibly extend into the support cluster at 1.1168 to 1.1167. The latter is also the trigger point for an acceleration into 1.1066.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1259 will signal the return of buyers. This could lead to a quick test of 1.1295. Overtaking this level will indicate the counter-trend buying is getting stronger. This could trigger a surge into the minor tops at 1.1349 and 1.1353.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.