EUR/USD is on Very Thin Ice Ahead of Important Macro Data

EUR/USD Fundamentals and Calendar

The EURUSD’s calendar is pretty packed this week. Today, we’ll receive the US’s producer price index (PPI) but the real deal is set for tomorrow. A rate decision, an ECB statement and conference and the US’s retail sales – all events that should significantly shake the main currency pair.

Euro Technical Analysis and Trading Strategy

Let’s look at how the technical situation is looking ahead of those important fundamental events.

Currently, the EURUSD is on an absolutely crucial long-term support. That’s the lower line of the giant symmetric triangle pattern (red). We’re also above an important horizontal support, around 1.08 (yellow), which was already in action at the beginning of 2017 and in 2020. It’s absolutely essential for buyers to hold this support.

The breakout of the yellow area would mean an amazing, long-term sell signal. Sellers already have a great background for this story. We have a blue down trendline and most recently a flag pattern (black), which ended with a breakout to the downside, promoting a further, long-term slide.

A sell-signal will be triggered here when the weekly candle closes below the yellow area. Chances for that happening are significant but it’s not a done deal yet.

Buyers can still perform a counter-attack, which could leave a long tale on a weekly candle. Should the price create any kind of a doji here it would be an interesting occasion to buy, but in general a bearish scenario seems more probable at the moment.