EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for December 26, 2019

The charts paint a picture of a whip-saw trade. Due to the low volume and the lack of a stopper in the market, the Euro could’ve rallied to 1.1313 on Wednesday, but the price may have been hit by only 1 trade.
James Hyerczyk

The Euro is showing little movement against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday as the Forex markets remain closed in Europe. According to the daily calendar, Switzerland, Germany and Italy are on bank holidays so we really can’t believe the price action we may have witnessed on Wednesday and early Thursday.

The charts paint a picture of a whip-saw trade. Due to the low volume and the lack of a stopper in the market, the Euro could’ve rallied to 1.1313 on Wednesday, but the price may have been hit by only 1 trade.

At 12:11 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1087, down 0.0121, down 1.08%.

One scenario we’re looking at creates a range of 1.0879 to 1.1313. Its 50% to 61.8% zone is 1.1096 to 1.1045. The EUR/USD is currently trading inside this zone. Given the extremely low volume on Thursday, we don’t expect to see any movement outside of this zone.

If prices due spike through 1.1096 once again, it’s likely to be caused once again by a rogue computer trader.

On the downside, taking out 1.1067 will be a sign of weakness, but taking out 1.1045 will signal the selling pressure is getting stronger.


Daily Forecast

All we know at this time is that the EUR/USD printed a spike high at 1.1313 on December 25 and settled at 1.1208. What we don’t know is the volume in the market at the time of the trade. We suspect that the way the EUR/USD has plunged back to nearly unchanged from Tuesday’s close, the spike to the upside was a bad trade that could be removed before Friday’s session.

Essentially, the Forex markets are too thin to trade on Thursday since many of the major players are on holiday.

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