EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for February 8, 2019

The market is down for a sixth trading day since the closing price reversal top at 1.1514. This likely means the Euro is nearing oversold territory. The early price action suggests buyers may already be coming in to defend the main bottom at 1.1289. This could produce a closing price reversal bottom that could lead to a short-term, counter-trend short-covering rally.
James Hyerczyk
EUR/USD

The Euro is trading higher on Friday, but still in a position to post its biggest weekly decline in four months. The move is likely being fueled by profit-taking and position-squaring ahead of the week-end. The main catalyst for this week’s weakness remains concerns that the global economic slowdown may be spreading to the Euro Zone region.

At 13:45 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1349, up 0.0011 or +0.10%.

Traders are saying a “mystery buyer” may be defending the EUR/USD at 1.1300. According to CNBC, “One Analyst pointed to the presence of large currency options amounting to nearly $1 billion around $1.1280 expiring later in the day as another possible prop.”

“Other traders said option structures between $1.12 and $1.16 have kept the currency in a tight band as banks have tried to curb volatility.”

Daily EUR/USD

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $1.1289 will reaffirm the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a trade through $1.1514.

The market is down for a sixth trading day since the closing price reversal top at 1.1514. This likely means the Euro is nearing oversold territory. The early price action suggests buyers may already be coming in to defend the main bottom at 1.1289. This could produce a closing price reversal bottom that could lead to a short-term, counter-trend short-covering rally.

The current short-term range is 1.1514 to 1.1323. If there is a short-covering rally then look for a 2 to 3 day move with 1.1419 to 1.1441 the next likely upside target zone.

On the downside, a move through 1.1323 will indicate the selling is getting stronger. This could drive the EUR/USD into the main bottom at 1.1289. This is followed by the December 14, 2018 main bottom at 1.1270.

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