EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for June 28, 2019

The Euro is trading slightly higher against the U.S. Dollar on Friday, but the Forex pair remains inside Tuesday’s wide range. This indicates investor indecision and impending volatility.

Keeping a lid on prices is the closing price reversal top from June 25 at 1.1413. This top was formed after dovish comments from two Fed officials helped reduce the chances of a 50 basis point rate cut by central bank policymakers in late July.

Earlier today, a report from the European Union’s Eurostat agency showed that Euro Zone inflation remained stable in June. However, the number was still far short of the ECB’s target rate of just below 2%. This should raise the chances of additional stimulus from the European Central Bank. This news may also be limiting gains.

At 12:28 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1381, up 0.0011 or +0.10%.

Daily Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has slowed since the formation of the potentially bearish closing price reversal top at 1.1413 on June 25.

A trade through 1.1413 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

Taking out 1.1344 will confirm the chart pattern. This could trigger a break into the main retracement zone at 1.1318 to 1.1278 and the short-term retracement zone at 1.1297 to 1.1270. Since the main trend is up, buyers are likely to come in on a test of these levels.

The minor range is 1.1413 to 1.1344. Its 50% level or pivot at 1.1379 is controlling the intraday direction of the EUR/USD.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at 1.1379.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1379 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to extend into the downtrending Gann angle at 1.1403. This is the last potential resistance angle before the 1.1413 main top. Taking out this top could trigger an acceleration to the upside with the March 21 top at 1.1448 the next major upside target.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1379 will signal the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum then look for the selling to extend into a downtrending Gann angle at 1.1358. Look for the selling pressure to increase if this angle fails with the next target an uptrending Gann angle at 1.1341.