EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for March 11, 2021

The Euro is trading higher against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday after hitting a one-week high earlier in the session. The price action suggests a slight “risk on” tone ahead of a European Central Bank monetary policy meeting.

At 11:25 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1967, up 0.0038 or +0.32%.

At the ECB meeting, policymakers are expected to send a message that they will prevent bond yields from rising further and harming the bloc’s economic outlook. The bank is expected to signal faster money printing but stop short of adding to its already aggressive policy package.

Analysts at ING wrote in a note to clients that they do not expect the Euro to be the focus of discussion, since it has fallen since the previous meeting. The Euro-dollar pair is being more driven by dollar-related factors such as Treasury yields, ING said.

The ECB’s policy decision will be at 12:45 GMT, followed by a news conference at 13:30 GMT.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, but momentum has been trending higher since the formation of the closing price reversal bottom on Tuesday.

A trade through 1.1836 will negate the closing price reversal bottom and signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will change to up on a move through 1.2243.

The minor trend is also down. A trade through 1.2113 will change the minor trend to up. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The minor range is 1.2113 to 1.1836. Its 50% level at 1.1974 is the first upside target. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on the first test of this level.

The man range is 1.1800 to 1.2349. Its retracement zone at 1.2010 to 1.2074 is the primary upside target. Sellers could also come in on a test of this area in an effort to form a potentially bearish secondary lower top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1974.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1974 will indicate the presence of buyers. The first upside target is 1.2010. Taking out this level could trigger an acceleration into 1.2074.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1974 will signal the presence of sellers. The first downside target is a minor pivot at 1.1905. Aggressive counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this level. They’ll will be trying to form a secondary higher bottom. If it fails then look for a further decline into 1.1836.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.