Natural Gas Technical Analysis
The natural gas market has been very negative for a while as it bumps along the $2.80 level. Keep in mind that the Friday session would have been Good Friday, and therefore, the futures markets were closed. There were some CFD markets open, but really the analysis is going to be the same.
Natural gas is in a horrible place right now as far as demand is concerned, and therefore, pricing just has no power. Rallies are opportunities to short a market that probably won’t perk up until July or even August. We will get a spike when there are extremely hot temperatures, and then we will see a lull before natural gas picks up this winter.
Shorting the Rally Technical Analysis
There are concerns about whether or not the Europeans will be drawing down some of the gas from the United States, but I think that’s a winter story; that’s not a problem right now. As long as that’s the case, short-term rallies I do think get sold into.
I’d be very interested in shorting this market at multiple points, especially the 50-day EMA, which is at $3.23, but probably will have to settle on the $3 level because I don’t think, barring some type of external problem, that this market is going to get a sudden boost.
The temperatures are comfortable enough in the United States to have your windows open right now, so it’s not a heating or cooling question. The whole idea behind natural gas powering AI data centers seems to have cooled off as well, at least for the time being. I remain very bearish; I am just looking for an opportunity to go short.
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