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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for October 19, 2021

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Oct 19, 2021, 13:36 UTC

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1640.

EURUSD

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The Euro is trading better but off its highs on Tuesday with the single currency benefiting from U.S. Dollar weakness.

Last week, the Euro was pressing a multi-month low at 1.1524 with the U.S. Dollar benefiting from stagflation fears as well as bets the Federal Reserve would begin tapering its monetary stimulus next month, followed by interest rate increases next year.

But with the Fed tightening priced in, and other central banks raising rates, traders are now taking a look at the European Central Bank (ECB) for direction. Although earlier this month, traders turned net short the Euro for the first time since March, analysts are now assuming the ECB is close to the end of the policy tightening timeline along with the Swiss and Bank of Japan.

At 13:21 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1646, up 0.0035 or +0.30%.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has shifted to the upside. A trade through 1.1755 will change the main trend to up. A move through 1.1524 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The minor trend is up. It changed up earlier today when buyers took out the last minor top at 1.1640. This move shifted momentum to the upside. A trade through 1.1572 will change the minor trend to down.

The minor range is 1.1755 to 1.1524. The EUR/USD is currently straddling its pivot at 1.1640.

The short-term range is 1.1909 to 1.1524. Its retracement zone at 1.1717 to 1.1762 is the next key upside target area. Since the main trend is down, sellers could come in on a test of this zone. Inside the zone is the 1.1755 main top.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The direction of the EUR/USD into the close on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to 1.1640.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1640 will indicate the presence of buyers. If this move generates enough upside momentum then look for a possible surge into the short-term 50% level at 1.1717.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1640 will signal the presence of sellers. If this move creates enough downside momentum then look for a pullback into 1.1621, followed by the minor bottom at 1.1572.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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