EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 4, 2020

The Euro is trading flat against the U.S. Dollar shortly before the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report at 12:30 GMT on Friday. The currency is also in a positon to close lower for the week.

The headline number is expected to show the economy added 1375K jobs in August. The Unemployment Rate is expected to dip from 10.2% to 9.8 and Average Hourly Earnings are expected to come in as flat.

At 11:37 GMT, the EUR/USD is trading 1.1845, down 0.0007 or -0.06%.

The pace of rehiring is expected to have slowed in August, and the economy likely added fewer jobs than in July as workers continue to be laid off.

A weaker number could give the Euro a short-term boost, however, gains could be limited if investors continue to dump higher-risk stocks. If we have a repeat performance of yesterday or if investors start to believe that there is more downside potential, then the Euro could drop because of the U.S. Dollar’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum is trending lower. A trade through 1.1754 will change the main trend to down. A move through 1.2011 will signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The minor trend is also up. A trade through the new minor bottom at 1.1789 will change the minor trend to down. This will confirm the shift in momentum.

The short-term range is 1.1711 to 1.2011. Its retracement zone at 1.1861 to 1.1826 is currently being tested.

The minor range is 1.2011 to 1.1789. Its 50% level at 1.1900 is a potential upside target.

If the main trend changes to down then the main 50% level at 1.1691 will become the primary downside target.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 1.1861 and the Fibonacci level at 1.1826.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over 1.1861 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a rally into the minor 50% level at 1.1900. This is another potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under 1.1826 will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a break into the minor bottom at 1.1789. Taking out this level could trigger a further break into the main bottom at 1.1754.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.