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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As ISM Services PMI Meets Estimates: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

By
Vladimir Zernov
Published: Jul 6, 2026, 17:03 GMT+00:00

The American currency gains ground, supported by strong ISM Services PMI report.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY Forecasts
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders Focus On ISM Services PMI

DXY 060726 4h Chart

U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to the ISM Services PMI report. The report indicated that ISM Services PMI declined from 54.5 in May to 54.0 in June, in line with analyst estimates. Numbers above 50 show expansion.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.85 range.

EUR/USD Pulls Back As Euro Area Retail Sales Miss Estimates

EUR/USD 060726 4h Chart

EUR/USD is losing ground as traders focus on the disappointing Euro Area Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Euro Area Retail Sales increased by +0.2% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +0.3%.

Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Factory Orders report from Germany. The report showed that Factory Orders grew by +1.9% on a month-over-month basis, compared to analyst forecast of +1.2%.

From the technical point of view, EUR/USD attempts to settle below the support at 1.1420 – 1.1435. If EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1420 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.1400. A move below the 50 MA will push EUR/USD towards the next support at 1.1350 – 1.1365.

GBP/USD Tests The 1.3375 Level

GBP/USD 060726 4h Chart

GBP/USD is moving higher despite the weaker-than-expected UK Construction PMI report. The report showed that UK Construction PMI improved from 38.2 in May to 38.4 in June, while analysts expected that it would increase to 40.

In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.3335 – 1.3350, it will gain additional upside momentum and move towards the next resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465. RSI is close to the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain momentum in the near term.

USD/CAD Tests Resistance At 1.4225 – 1.4240

USD/CAD 060726 4h Chart

USD/CAD is moving higher as traders focus on the pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined towards the $4150 level, while silver settled below $62.00. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.

USD/CAD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.4225 – 1.4240. If USD/CAD climbs above the 1.4240 level, it will move towards the next resistance at 1.4335 – 1.4350.

USD/JPY Climbed Back Above 162.00

USD/JPY 060726 4h Chart

USD/JPY continues to rebound after recent pullback. Treasury yields are moving lower, but this move does not put pressure on USD/JPY. Traders bet that the Bank of Japan would not be able to break the bullish trend in USD/JPY.

The Bank of Japan would be forced to maintain its ultra-dovish policy due to the weakness of the Japanese economy. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to raise rates in September. The significant difference in interest rates between U.S. and Japan puts material pressure on the Japanese currency.

USD/JPY moved back above the resistance at 161.50 – 162.00 and is trying to settle above the 162.50 level. In case this attempt is successful, USD/JPY will test recent highs near the 163.80 level. A move above this level will open the way to the test of the psychologically important 165.00 level.

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About the Author

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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