EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Bounces From Extreme Lows

The Euro has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Tuesday to break above the top of a hammer from Monday. That of course is a bullish sign but at this point in time it looks very likely that the market is still going to struggle above, as we have seen such a huge move into the US dollar. With the credit concerns in China, there has been a rush towards safety, which means US bonds.

EUR/USD Video 22.09.21

If we do break down below the bottom of the Monday candlestick, that opens up the move towards 1.16 underneath, which has been a very interesting support level multiple times in the past, so I would anticipate a fight at that point. The market breaking down below the 1.16 level would of course be a major break of structure, thereby opening up the market for even more persistent selling.

To the upside, if the market were to take out the 1.18 level, then we face a significant amount of resistance near the 1.1850 level that extends to the 200 day EMA. In fact, it is not truly until we break above the 1.19 level that we can make the argument for more of a “buy-and-hold” situation. That of course is a long way from here, so it is going to be difficult to get there, and it will take a certain amount of time. With this, I do not think that we will hit the bottom yet, but a short-term bounce may be in the cards. I am looking to fade this rally on signs of exhaustion but do not have that set up quite yet

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