EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro Consolidating

The Euro went back and forth during the course of the trading session on Friday to hover around the 1.13 level. The jobs number has come and gone, so now the question is whether or not we can continue to try to build up some type of base, or are we going to continue the overall longer-term downtrend? At this point, I would have to assume that the trend will continue, but it is obvious that anything can happen. A breakdown below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Friday opened up the possibility of a retest of the lows, which is roughly the 1.12 handle.

EUR/USD Video 06.12.21

To the upside, if we can take out the 50 day EMA I might be convinced to start buying, but right now that does not look to be the most likely of scenarios. With that in mind, I believe that this is a market that you need to be cautious with, but at this point I do like fading rallies that show signs of exhaustion. I do not believe in trying to fight trends, so as things stand right now, I have to assume the same noise continues. The US dollar has strengthened against almost everything, not just the Euro.

If we were to take out the 50 day EMA, then the 1.15 level would be a target, extending all the way to the 1.16 level. Breaking above that level then opens up a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of situation, but that is not something I see happening anytime soon. All things been equal, I think we revisit the bottom.

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