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Christopher Lewis
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The Euro has rallied a bit during the course of the trading session but continues to see a little bit of resistance between the 50 day EMA and the 1.1850 level. The 1.1850 level is an area that has been important in a few different times, and therefore I think what we are getting ready to see here is a market that will continue to stay range bound, perhaps even breaking down unless something fundamentally changes. So far, it looks like there is a bit of a “brick wall” in that 1.1850 range.

EUR/USD Video 16.09.21

That being said to the downside the 1.18 level has been important, so pay close attention to how that has been behaving and how it behaves on pullbacks. Breaking down below the hammer from the Monday session would be my signal to start selling aggressively, because at that point then we could go looking towards the 1.17 level over the longer term. The 1.17 level of course is an area that has attracted attention to previously, so I would not be surprised at all to see this market aim for that in order to target something familiar.

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Both central banks are very loose right now, so do not be surprised at all to see a certain amount of choppy behavior and going forward it is difficult to tell which one is going to taper more or less, because quite frankly neither one seems to be very clear with its messaging. If that continues to be the case, then I think we have more choppy yet slumping behavior ahead. If we were to break above the 200 day EMA, then I might be convinced to get long for a bigger move.

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