EUR/USD Weekly Forecast – Euro Bounces

EUR/USD Forecast Video for 12.06.23

Euro vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The euro initially fell a bit during the trading week, piercing the 50-EMA. On the other hand, the market turned right back around to show signs of life and pressure the 1.08 level above. The 1.08 level being broken opens up the possibility of a move toward the 1.10 level, maybe even his high as the 200-Week EMA, currently hanging around the 1.1075 region. This obviously would be very bullish for risk appetite as it would send the US dollar lower and therefore would be a good sign for the overall health of risk appetite.

If the market were to turn around and break out below the lows of the previous week, then it’s possible that we could go down to the 1.05 level. The 1.05 level is an area that has been important in multiple weeks, and therefore I think would attract a lot of attention. Raking below that level opens the trapdoor for a major selling opportunity.

Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank both have meetings next week and therefore, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of noisy behavior. The central bank meetings are within 24 hours, so it makes sense that we would see a very violent market reaction. You might see the market lurch one way, only to turn around and lurch the other. That being said, it’s also possible that we could see some clarity, and I think most of the trading public would welcome that type of behavior.

All things being equal, I think this is a market that you need to let it do its thing first before putting a lot of money into it, but if you are a longer-term trader, you can start to look at this through the prism of a potential channel forming, but if we break down below the 1.05 level, it opens up the possibility of a massive shorting opportunity. All things being equal, it’s likely that we could see a big move, but it’s probably going to be apparent by the end of the week which direction we are going.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.