EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro looking exhausted

The Euro was all over the place during the week as we had an ECB press conference, as you would expect. Having said that, it had a significant bounce after the interest rate decision, but on Friday we also started to see selling pressure again. We are in a downtrend, and that’s the most important thing to pay attention to.
Christopher Lewis
EUR/USD weekly chart, September 16, 2019

The Euro initially fell during the week, testing the bottom again and then turned around to reach towards the 1.11 level. We pulled back from there, as we started to see plenty of exhaustion. Looking at this chart, it’s obvious that we are in a downtrend and I do think that it’s only a matter of time before we break down significantly. On a weekly close below the 1.10 level underneath we could see a longer-term move down towards the 100% Fibonacci retracement level. That could send this market as low as the 1.04 or so, but quite frankly it is going to take quite a bit of time to get there.

EUR USD Forecast Video 16.09.19

While the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut interest rates, at the end of the day it’s likely that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the United States regardless. At this point, if you’re going to buy bonds you don’t necessarily want to do so in the European Union because they are all negative interest rate yielding. However, even as low as interest rates are the United States, they are at least still positive.

At this point, there is a lot of choppiness I think that it’s probably easier to trade this market on short-term charts such as the daily time frame, but overall attitude of this market is most certainly to the downside. The Euro has to deal with the fact that Germany is entering a recession, Italy is already there, and of course there is a huge issue with many of the other member countries.

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