Euro Plunges to Test for Support

The Euro has plunged significantly to kick off the trading week on Monday, reaching down towards the 1.08 level before finding people willing to buy it again. At this point, the market is trying to stabilize but it will be interesting to see how the Euro trades from here, simply due to the Ukrainian war by itself. Furthermore, we also have to worry about whether or not Europe will have energy, as Russia is a major exporter of said energy to that part of the world. Ultimately, I think it is likely that this market continues to be very noisy, but I believe that the best way to play this market is not to try to pick some type of bottom, but to short the market on signs of exhaustion after a rally.

EUR/USD Video 08.03.22

I believe that it is not until we break above the 1.12 level that you can take any rally seriously, and therefore I am not even looking for a buying opportunity at this point. I do think that eventually, the Euro become so cheap that somebody has to buy it, but I am not going to be the first one in that argument. Because of this, it is simply a matter of waiting for the opportunity to show up. Right now, it has gotten a little bit oversold, so I do not want to chase the market. Given enough time, we probably go even lower, but it is all about finding some type of value when it comes to the US dollar, not necessarily trying to find value for the Euro.

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