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Bob Mason

Economic Calendar:

Thursday, 12th November

German CPI (MoM) (Oct) Final

ECB Economic Bulletin

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)

Friday, 13th November

ECB President Lagarde Speaks

French CPI (MoM) (Oct) Final

French HICP (MoM) (Oct) Final

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Oct) Final

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Oct) Final

Eurozone GDP (YoY) (Q3) 2nd Estimate

Eurozone Trade Balance (Sep)


The Majors

It was a relatively bullish day for the European majors on Tuesday. The CAC40 rallied by 1.55%, with the DAX30 and EuroStoxx600 gaining 0.51% and 0.90% respectively.

Following Monday’s COVID-19 vaccine fuelled rally, concerns over the state of the economy and the likely pace of the economic recovery pinned the majors back. Lockdown measures in place and the threat of more containment measures are the biggest concerns.

While progress towards a COVID-19 vaccine was positive, delivering a worldwide vaccine would likely take time. This would mean an extended lockdown in parts of the globe, including EU member states.

Reflecting sentiment towards the impact of COVID-19 on the economy were ZEW sentiment figures released early in the session. A slide in the ZEW sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone tested support in the early part of the session.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the Eurozone economic calendar. Key stats included November ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for Germany and the Eurozone.

Investor sentiment towards the German economy deteriorated, with the indicator falling from 56.1 to 39.0. Things were not much better for the Eurozone, with the indicator sliding from 52.3 to 32.8.

From the U.S

JOLTs job openings for September had a muted impact on the European majors.

In September, JOLTs job openings fell from 6.49m to 6.44m. Economists had forecast an increase to 6.500m.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was another bullish day for the auto sector on Tuesday. Continental rallied by 5.89%, off the back of Monday’s 8.32% surge, to lead the way. Daimler and Volkswagen weren’t far behind, with gains of 5.00% and 5.39% respectively, while BMW trailed with a more modest 3.08% gain.

It was also a bullish day for the banks. Deutsche Bank rose by 1.24%, with Commerzbank rallying by 7.39%.

From the CAC, it was another particularly bullish day for the banks. BNP Paribas rallied by 7.64% to lead the way, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen gaining 4.71% and 4.61% respectively.

It was also a bullish day for the French auto sector. Peugeot rose by 3.87%, with Renault rallying by 6.41%

Air France-KLM consolidated Monday’s 27.48% gain, rising by 2.93%, with Airbus SE rallying by a further 5.93%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red for the VIX, which logged a 7th day in the red from eight on Tuesday. Reversing a 3.58% gain from Monday, the VIX fell by 3.69% to end the day at 24.80.

The pullback came in spite of the S&P500 and the NASDAQ ending the day in the red.

On Tuesday, the NASDAQ and the S&P500 fell by 1.37% and by 0.14% respectively, while the Dow rose by 0.90%.

Tech stocks were in the spotlight on Tuesday as the markets continued to respond to Pfizer Inc.’s vaccine news.

A further return to the new normal is expected to reduce the amount of time consumers spend at home, which would reduce demand for tech platforms.

The Day Ahead

It’s a particularly quiet day ahead on the Eurozone economic calendar. There are no material stats from the Eurozone to provide the majors with direction.

On the monetary policy front, ECB Lagarde is scheduled to speak late in the session. Lagarde has tended to avoid any forward guidance in scheduled speeches… Any comments would, therefore, influence.

From the U.S, there are also no material stats to provide direction late in the European session.

The lack of stats on the day will continue to leave the majors in the hands of COVID-19, Brexit, and U.S politics.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow was down by 26 points, with the DAX down by 81.5 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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