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Economic Calendar:

Monday, 1st March

Spanish Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Feb)

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French Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Final

German Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Final

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Feb) Final

Italian CPI (MoM) (Feb) Prelim

German CPI (MoM) (Feb) Prelim

Tuesday, 2nd March

German Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

German Unemployment Change (Feb)

German Unemployment Rate (Feb)

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Feb) Prelim

Wednesday, 3rd March

Spanish Services PMI (Feb)

Italian Services PMI (Feb)

French Services PMI (Feb) Final

German Services PMI (Feb) Final

Eurozone Markit Composite PMI (Feb) Final

Eurozone Services PMI (Feb) Final

Thursday, 4th March

German IHS Markit Construction PMI (Feb)

ECB Economic Bulletin

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Jan)

Friday, 5th March

German Factory Orders (MoM) (Jan)

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The Majors

It was a bearish end to the week for the European majors on Friday. The CAC40 and EuroStoxx600 slid by 1.39% and by 1.64% respectively, with the DAX30 declining by 0.67%.

Following a string of better-than-expected stats in the week, economic data from France disappointed on Friday.

The downside for the majors, however, came from market fears of a shift in central bank policy rather than weak stats.

A continued rise in government bond yields, fueled by reinflationary fears and the need for action did the damage.

The market angst continued in spite of ECB President Lagarde and FED Chair Powell attempting to comfort the markets in the week.

The Stats

It was a relatively quiet day on the economic calendar on Friday, with the French economy in the spotlight.

In January, consumer spending slumped by 4.6%, month-on-month, partially reversing December’s 22.4% rebound. Economists had forecast a 3.5% decline.

According to Insee.fr,

  • The consumption of manufactured goods tumbled by 12.9%.
    • Durable goods purchases fell by 9.9%, with spending on clothing and textiles sliding by 27.8%.
    • The 27.8% slide in spending on clothing and textiles left spending down by 14.4% year-on-year.
    • Other manufactured goods purchases fell by a relatively more modest 7.7%.
  • Energy consumption rose by 6.3%, however, with food consumption increasing by 1.7%. The upside in energy consumption was attributed to colder weather conditions.

4th quarter GDP numbers were also market negative. According to 2nd estimates, the economy contracted by 1.4%, quarter-on-quarter, revised down from a 1st estimate 1.3%.

Prelim inflation figures were not much better. In February, consumer prices fell by 0.1%, partially reversing a 0.2% rise from January.

From the U.S

It was a relatively busy day, with inflation and personal spending figures the key stats of the day.

Personal spending jumped by 2.4%, reversing a 0.4% decline from December. The numbers supported the more optimistic economic outlook.

Inflationary pressures also picked up in January. The FED’s preferred Core PCE Price Index rose by 1.5%. In December, the index had risen by 1.4%.

The Market Movers

For the DAX: It was a mixed day for the auto sector on Friday. Volkswagen and Daimler saw gains of 1.92% and 1.47% respectively, with BMW rising by 0.90%. Continental saw red, however, falling by 0.04%.

It was a particularly bearish day for the banks, however. Deutsche Bank fell by 2.67%, with Commerzbank sliding by 3.07%.

From the CAC, it was a bearish day for the banks. BNP Paribas slid by 2.06%, with Credit Agricole and Soc Gen falling by 1.57% and by 1.84% respectively.

It was also a bearish day for the French auto sector. Stellantis NV and Renault ended the day down by 0.86% and by 0.62% respectively.

Air France-KLM continued its recovery, rising by a further 1.23%, while Airbus SE slid by 3.05%.

On the VIX Index

It was back into the red for the VIX, delivering a 4th loss in 9 sessions, with the downside coming in spite of the S&P500 seeing red on the day.

Partially reversing a 35.38% jump from Thursday, the VIX fell by a relatively modest 3.25% to end the day at 27.95.

The NASDAQ rose by 0.56%, while the Dow and the S&P500 fell by 1.50% and by 0.48% respectively.

The Day Ahead

It’s a busy start to the week. February manufacturing PMI numbers for Italy and Spain are due out.

Finalized PMI numbers are also due out for France, Germany, and the Eurozone.

Barring material deviation from prelims, expect Italy and the Eurozone’s PMIs to have the greatest impact.

Later in the day, prelim inflation figures from Italy and Germany are also due out. Another pickup in inflation and the European majors could come under pressure ahead of the U.S open.

From the U.S, February’s ISM Manufacturing PMI and finalized Market PMI figures are also due out. Expect the ISM figure to have the greatest impact on the European majors.

Ahead of the European open, private sector PMI numbers from China will set the tone. From the weekend, the NBS PMIs disappointed ahead of this morning’s more influential Caixin Manufacturing PMI.

The Futures

In the futures markets, at the time of writing, the Dow Mini was up by 46 points.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

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