GBP to USD Weekly Forecast – British Pound Pierces the 1.25 Level

GBP to USD Forecast Video for 17.04.23

British Pound vs US Dollar Weekly Technical Analysis

The British pound has been all over the place during the trading week, breaking down initially, shooting straight up in the air after that, and then struggling to get above the 1.25 level as retail sales on Friday came out very anemic in the United States, suggesting that perhaps we are going to see more economic trouble than a lot of traders had been expecting. There was a rush into treasuries on Friday, which helped the US dollar pick up a bit of strength as it is a safety currency.

At this point, the question is which direction do we break out, because the end of the candlestick in both directions could be a signal to go one way or the other. If we break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then we could go looking toward the 1.22 level, where the 50-Week EMA is currently sitting. All things being equal, this is a market that has a lot of inertia trying to build up, and eventually it will get released.

If we do break above the top of the candlestick for the week, then the 1.2750 level will be the next target. Anything above there then opens up a potential move to the upside, perhaps as high as 1.30. All things being equal, this is a market that is going to continue to be very noisy, so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. I think given enough time; we will probably have to make a significant decision for the longer term.

The next week or 2 should give us answers, but keep in mind that we are right in the midst of a significant amount of noise on the chart, so it does make a lot of sense that you would see volatility pick up over the next several weeks. The market will continue to be very noisy and therefore the only thing that you can do is keep your position size reasonable in order to protect your trading capital. That’s generally true with almost everything that we are dealing with at the moment, and I just don’t see how it changes anytime soon.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.