The British pound had a very rough week again, reaching down to the 1.15 region. However, it looks like we are going to see a little bit of a fight here.
The British pound has fallen hard again during the trading week, as we continue to see a lot of negativity. That being said, the market is very likely to see the 1.15 level as a significant psychological support level, so a little bit of a bounce would not be a huge surprise. This market has fallen straight through the floor, and it’s very unlikely that we are going to be able to keep up this type of momentum.
That being said, anything at this point in time should be thought of as a “dead cat bounce”, as is a market being oversold does not necessarily mean that you should be buying British pounds. What it means is that the market is overdone, and therefore a little bit of sanity may be needed. Ultimately, I think this is a situation where you have more noise than anything else, so keep that in mind and do not get too aggressive. Rallies at this point in time should be selling opportunities, especially if we somehow get all the way up to the 1.20 level, an area that I think is going to be very difficult to overcome.
Ultimately, this is a market that given enough time should continue to see plenty of noise in that general vicinity. The market breaking above there would of course say something rather drastic, but I just don’t see how that happens in this environment, especially as the bank of England has already thrown in the towel on the economy going forward, and is very likely that things are only going to get worse from an energy standpoint.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.